Economic Model-Based Calculation of Per Capita Income Level in Nigeria

Abstract

A survey carried out revealed that socio-economic human development programmes (SHDP) remain a major item of the United Nations development agenda. The objective of national development plans has always aimed to ascertain and improve the quality of living (QL) worldwide. Due to inaccuracies in available population and national income data, the existing method of calculating per capita income is inadequate and fails to manifest the true life situation. Nigeria has not conducted a national census since 2006, leaving the country to rely on projections from foreign agencies for demographic data. This paper develops an alternative method for calculating per capita income levels based on details of Nigerian workers' pay packages. The Nigerian population figures are classified into three economic groups of varying capabilities, utilizing the 25:75 basic-allowance ratio embedded in Nigerian public service pay structures. The adjustment error affecting the accuracy of the calculation is subjected to H-testing to facilitate relevance to true life affairs. The proposed model offers a methodology that addresses the data deficit problem in Nigeria by deriving income estimates from verifiable pay package data rather than relying solely on contested national aggregates.